Retrograde Motion

Long ago, astronomers could not explain the apparent backward movement of stars across the sky rather than a continuous path over the year, and coined the term "retrograde motion" to explain the phenomenon. In essence, they saw unexplained motion that did not fit their model and missed the true motion of the bodies in orbit. They blinded themselves to the reality by adhering to the broken model rather than devising a more sensible model (i.e. a heliocentric universe).

Recent articles about the current economic recovery remind me of retrograde motion. I took an economics class where the professor overlaid prior recessions and plotted the expected growth afterward as if to prove some magical elixir inherent in merely "recovering" from the downturn. The model expects motion to fit the prior moves and the current flat economic state does not adhere. The Federal Reserve literally played all cards it could and the government probably cannot afford to spend more, which may be a mistaken philosophy given the excess capital remaining unspent in the market. Newspapers may not have the space to explore deeper into economic theory and a basic economics lesson may gloss over the topic, but I've not seen a glimmer of greater understanding.

I think the economy is in a state of retrograde motion. The last 50 years of data may represent a portion of the data set rather than the range of values for which we should project moving forward the next 500 years. As economics builds larger data sets the models should hopefully improve, I am unaware of any great perspectives on how to truly refine current understandings.