ND football

In December of 2009 Notre Dame hired Brian Kelly from Cincinnati and fared not much better in 2010 or 2011. The next two seasons will be critical for not only Kelly's legacy as the team composition features his recruits more than the past two seasons, but also because the important television contract with CBS expires in 2015. I like Kelly and think he can put together a good team next year, but I wanted to highlight how important these next two years will be for Notre Dame football.

The win-loss percentage for the Notre Dame football team has a strong history and a trendline fitting the record shows a decline - not surprising given the early dominance of the program:


Reducing the timeframe to the years since 1990:
Reducing the timeframe to the years since 2000:

Putting the three trendlines together side by side:


If it is not already apparent the point of comparing these three trendlines is to compare the perceived trajectory of the football program from college football enthusiast with historical perspective, people in the target audience for marketing, and youth in the age range for future recruiting. Clearly people with the deepest perspective will appreciate the rich history of the program, but among the casual viewing audience the program is a former powerhouse in steady decline, and among the future student population the program was never great. Obviously I draw the parallel to the viewing population to the CBS contract and the performance of the football team in the viewing lifetime of future students. Viewers will watch when the team is successful, which requires future talent. However that generation knows the program as only above average, not a national contender, and high school students wanting to win a championship are more easily swayed to other schools. There is a convergence of trends in the wrong direction that seem dire, especially if the next two years continue to not produce national contenders in the elite bowl games. Pulling the television contract would jeopardize the ability of the program to market itself, unless alternate plans are made to replace the CBS deal. This can be avoided if the program improves.

Looking at the peak AP ranking achieving at any point during the football seasons:

	1930s	1940s	1950s	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s
Top 1	25%	60%	30%	40%	50%	40%	20%
Top 5	25%	40%	60%	20%	20%	20%	40%	30%
Top 25	50%		10%	20%	30%	40%	40%	50%	50%
Unranked				20%				20%	50%

In the 2000s the program was considered good at some point most the years and 30% of the years the team was in contention for the title. The history looking back is amazing; to be in the hunt for the national championship 3 out of every 5 years in the 1990s was exciting - without pulling down the final championship the program persistently was relevant to the entire college football community.

Weeks before the Kelly hiring in 2009 I blogged about Notre Dame football:

Boston College, South Carolina, and Navy. I think three programs represent the three trajectories ND can go, from positive like BC, to flat as SC, or a negative direction to on par with Navy. The three nationally prominent teams over the past ten years are USC, Florida, and LSU. Notre Dame is very far from competing with these programs. Three comparable Big East programs are Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. Take a look at comparisons from the past ten years of Notre Dame verse these respective programs.

	Record	Bowl Games	Bowl Record	AP rankings	Championships
Notre Dame	69-53	6	1-5	4	0

peer group (average winning percentage 56.3%, Notre Dame winning percentage 56.6%):

	Record	Bowl Games	Bowl Record	AP rankings	Championships	Win %
Boston College	88-39	10	8-2	5	0	69.3%
South Carolina	61-59	5	3-2	2	0	50.8%
Navy	59-62	6	2-4	1	0	48.8%

Nationally competitive (average winning percentage 75.0%):

USC	99-28	8	6-2	7	2	78.0%
Florida	96-33	10	4-6	8	2	74.4%
LSU	93-35	9	7-2	7	1	72.7%

Big East (average winning percentage 59.7%):

Pitt	69-51	6	2-4	2	0	57.5%
West Virginia	81-42	8	5-3	5	0	65.9%
Cincinnati	69-55	7	3-4	2	0	55.6%

Let's update the records looking at the past two seasons to see how the groups compare now:

	Record	Bowl Games	Bowl Record	AP rankings	Championships	Win %
Notre Dame	16-10	2	1-1	0	0	61.5%
Boston College	16-10	1	0-1	0	0	61.5%
South Carolina	19-7	2	1-0	2	0	73.1%
Navy	14-11	1	0-1	0	0	56.0%
Peers:	49-28	4	1-2	2	0	63.6%
USC	18-7	ineligible	ineligible	2	ineligible	72.0%
Florida	14-11	2	1-0	2	0	56.0%
LSU	24-2	2	1-0	2	0 as of today	92.3%
Contenders:	56-20	4	2-0	6	0 as of today	73.7%
Pitt	14-11	2	1-0	0	0	56.0%
West Virginia	18-7	2	0-1	1	0	72.0%
Cincinnati	13-11	1	0-0	0	0	54.2%
Big East:	45-29	5	1-1	1	0	60.8%

LSU could win the 2011 championship and I made assumptions of the teams to make the final 2011 AP rankings, but the story is not far different from 2009. Notre Dame mirrored the record of Boston College and a bit better than Navy, but several steps behind the nationally competitive teams.