Sunday, April 13, 2008

Baseball Evaluation

Baseball is a game fun to enjoy, but hard to appreciate, in only one sitting. There is a long season and the evaluation of talent takes six months to sort out the best among the competition.

For instance, the last 4 retired pitchers to throw a perfect game have received a grand total of 17 votes for the Hall of Fame (Dennis Martinez 16, Tom Browning 1, Mike Witt 0, & Len Barker 0) - in comparison, Jim Rice received 392 votes in 2008 and remained 16 votes shy of induction. Likewise the last 2 retired players hit 4 home runs in a game received a grand total of zero votes for the Hall of Fame (Mark Whiten & Bob Horner).

As an individual batter .300 is a great batting average, .250 is average, and .200 is poor. Out of 500 AB that equates to 150 hits are great, 125 are average, and 100 are poor. The difference in great and average is 25 hits or 1 AB in every 20. The difference in great and poor is 50 hits or 1 AB in every 10.

As a team a great record is 100 wins, an average team should win 80 games, and a horrible team would win 60 in the 162 game season. The difference in great and average is 20 more wins over 160 games or 1 in every 8th game. The difference in great and horrible is 40 games or 1 in every 4th game.

So in a 3 game series the great team with its great players may be dominated by a poor team with a horrible record. For example, the famous 1927 Yankees dominated with 110 wins and a World Series title but lost a three game series in August to the 6th place Cleveland Indians by a combined score of 16-30.

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