Phillies/Yankees
2009 World Series teams are the Philadelphia Phillies, first professional sports team to reach 10,000 losses, and the New York Yankees, the winningest franchise in MLB history.
The Phillies have only made seven World Series appearances and won twice. The Yankees have made seven World Series appearance and won four times since 1995. Of course, history does not matter come gametime, but the regular season and playoff performances to date could hold insight to the World Series games.
The Yankees outscored opponents in the regular season 915-753 on the way to 103 wins.
The Phillies outscored opponents in the regular season 820-709 on the way to 93 wins.
That means over 162 games the Yankees scored one more run than their competition and the Phillies score less than .7 run more than their competition over 162 regular season games.
The Phillies lead the NL in OPS+, Runs, Total Bases, HR, and RBI. The Phillies had the second most SB but were only successful at catching on 28% of Stolen Base attempts against them, less than league average. Phillies pitchers finished above league average, but well-below the leaders in team ERA+, WHIP, Strikeouts, and was exactly the league average in K per 9 Innings. Defensively the Phillies were within one thousandth from being league leader in fielding percentage. and had the second fewest Errors in the National League.
The Yankees lead the AL in OPS+, Runs, Total Bases, HR, and RBI. The Yankees had one more than the AL League average in SB and were successful at catching 29% of Stolen Base attempts against them, just above league average. Yankees pitchers lead the AL in Strikeouts and K per 9 Innings, but only finished above league average in ERA+ and WHIP. Defensively the Yankees finished above league average, but well-below the leaders in fielding percentage and fewest Errors in the American League.
Comparing the AL to the NL aside, these rankings suggest the story to be written will entail very strong offense from both teams with a possibility of aggressive baserunning. Pitching should be above average for both teams with the Yankees racking up more strikeouts and the Phillies having the better defensive team to make plays on balls in play. This combination of likely outcomes means for probable high scoring games, which makes for longer games and possibly good television ratings if there is a lot of action.
The edge offensively should go to the Yankees due to the advantage AL offenses regularly have over NL offenses. If both teams are above league average and AL hitting is better, the Yankees could have better pitching (note the Yankees edge in strikeouts). Defensively and running the bases the Phillies should have a clear advantage.
Those advantages are comparisons from 162 games. Come playoffs, winning trumps statistical analysis. The debated "intangibles" and notions about "experience" enter into debates about talent and performance. When is the last time someone at your job said they thought someone could be better than a top performer because they have a clear focus and that somehow mattered more than ability? There are exceptions to every rule, but most players already have enough experience playing in front of huge crowds in pressure situations for the World Series to not be much different for them. There are streaks to be had, such as Alex Rodriguez's recent surge. These ebbs and flow are a natural part of the sport, but surely the players would rather ride high on recent clutch performances rather than come into a series dwelling on recent struggles.
Neither team struggled too much on the way to the World Series and both easily demonstrated better performances than their playoff opponents. The Yankees played more recently but had 6 starting players bat under .275 and only had 3 starting players bat over .300 in the ALCS. The Phillies had 5 starting players bat under .275 and only had 3 starting players bat over .300 in the NLCS. Due to rain the Yankees only used 3 starting pitchers, 2 of which sported ERA below 3.00 and 1 had an ERA well over 4.00. The Phillies had 2 starting pitchers give up no runs (0.00 ERA) and 2 starting pitchers with ERA well over 4.50. Both had an team ERA around 3.00 (2.91 for the Yankees and 3.07 for the Phillies). Now this is a truly small sample size but it suggests both offenses had many players slumping and overall good pitching with some spotty starting pitching. These recent games suggest more pitching duels than hitting duels. Both teams stole only 2 bases, so baserunning is perhaps a non-issue in games of such importance, where managers fear risking an out much more than the benefit of an extra base.
My expectation is a fun series to watch. It could be very explosive, but I do not expect a high scoring outcome. Instead, I'd expect careful pitching to the hot hitters and continued slumps by some that are struggling. I have no sense at all of objectivity, but it's hard for me to find a scenario where the Phillies come out on top. I believe the inaugrual season at the new Yankee Stadium ends with another Yankee championship.
The Phillies have only made seven World Series appearances and won twice. The Yankees have made seven World Series appearance and won four times since 1995. Of course, history does not matter come gametime, but the regular season and playoff performances to date could hold insight to the World Series games.
The Yankees outscored opponents in the regular season 915-753 on the way to 103 wins.
The Phillies outscored opponents in the regular season 820-709 on the way to 93 wins.
That means over 162 games the Yankees scored one more run than their competition and the Phillies score less than .7 run more than their competition over 162 regular season games.
The Phillies lead the NL in OPS+, Runs, Total Bases, HR, and RBI. The Phillies had the second most SB but were only successful at catching on 28% of Stolen Base attempts against them, less than league average. Phillies pitchers finished above league average, but well-below the leaders in team ERA+, WHIP, Strikeouts, and was exactly the league average in K per 9 Innings. Defensively the Phillies were within one thousandth from being league leader in fielding percentage. and had the second fewest Errors in the National League.
The Yankees lead the AL in OPS+, Runs, Total Bases, HR, and RBI. The Yankees had one more than the AL League average in SB and were successful at catching 29% of Stolen Base attempts against them, just above league average. Yankees pitchers lead the AL in Strikeouts and K per 9 Innings, but only finished above league average in ERA+ and WHIP. Defensively the Yankees finished above league average, but well-below the leaders in fielding percentage and fewest Errors in the American League.
Comparing the AL to the NL aside, these rankings suggest the story to be written will entail very strong offense from both teams with a possibility of aggressive baserunning. Pitching should be above average for both teams with the Yankees racking up more strikeouts and the Phillies having the better defensive team to make plays on balls in play. This combination of likely outcomes means for probable high scoring games, which makes for longer games and possibly good television ratings if there is a lot of action.
The edge offensively should go to the Yankees due to the advantage AL offenses regularly have over NL offenses. If both teams are above league average and AL hitting is better, the Yankees could have better pitching (note the Yankees edge in strikeouts). Defensively and running the bases the Phillies should have a clear advantage.
Those advantages are comparisons from 162 games. Come playoffs, winning trumps statistical analysis. The debated "intangibles" and notions about "experience" enter into debates about talent and performance. When is the last time someone at your job said they thought someone could be better than a top performer because they have a clear focus and that somehow mattered more than ability? There are exceptions to every rule, but most players already have enough experience playing in front of huge crowds in pressure situations for the World Series to not be much different for them. There are streaks to be had, such as Alex Rodriguez's recent surge. These ebbs and flow are a natural part of the sport, but surely the players would rather ride high on recent clutch performances rather than come into a series dwelling on recent struggles.
Neither team struggled too much on the way to the World Series and both easily demonstrated better performances than their playoff opponents. The Yankees played more recently but had 6 starting players bat under .275 and only had 3 starting players bat over .300 in the ALCS. The Phillies had 5 starting players bat under .275 and only had 3 starting players bat over .300 in the NLCS. Due to rain the Yankees only used 3 starting pitchers, 2 of which sported ERA below 3.00 and 1 had an ERA well over 4.00. The Phillies had 2 starting pitchers give up no runs (0.00 ERA) and 2 starting pitchers with ERA well over 4.50. Both had an team ERA around 3.00 (2.91 for the Yankees and 3.07 for the Phillies). Now this is a truly small sample size but it suggests both offenses had many players slumping and overall good pitching with some spotty starting pitching. These recent games suggest more pitching duels than hitting duels. Both teams stole only 2 bases, so baserunning is perhaps a non-issue in games of such importance, where managers fear risking an out much more than the benefit of an extra base.
My expectation is a fun series to watch. It could be very explosive, but I do not expect a high scoring outcome. Instead, I'd expect careful pitching to the hot hitters and continued slumps by some that are struggling. I have no sense at all of objectivity, but it's hard for me to find a scenario where the Phillies come out on top. I believe the inaugrual season at the new Yankee Stadium ends with another Yankee championship.
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