Notre Dame football

After Notre Dame lost to Navy and Pitt in unremarkable performances by the "Fighting Irish" I decided the football team needs to join the other Irish athletic programs joined to the Big East conference.

The Big East is a football powerhouse, basketball is its favored sport. The football programs at Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, USF, and West Virginia are typically not included in the debate over the national championship. Neither has Notre Dame though, not many years. 1993 was the last serious run by the Irish and since then the program hangs on the fringe of the college football scene.

There are a few trajectories available, but the return of Notre Dame football to national prominence is probably not one of them. There is no longer the allure of success to the program, the academic rise of the university is unattractive for less academically-minded athletes, there is no regional base for developing talent, religious and Catholic themes are unpopular anymore, kids looking to party know to look elsewhere, and the weather in South Bend is unbecoming for recruits. The staggering fall of Notre Dame football to national irrelevance is unfortunately a possible outcome. The nationally broadcast games cannot overcome the nationally lampooned losses. The thought of ND on par with Navy in the minds of prominent high school athletes came to mind. At best current high school students were in diapers when ND was robbed of the 1993 championship and most college students were not born the last time ND won the championship.

The university could cast aside the ties of the football team to amateur athletes and put together a Harlem Globetrotters model program to travel the country. This could entice players intimidated by college academics and invite players otherwise headed to Canadian/European/arena football a second chance to prove themselves. I believe only ND could make that transition viable and its Independent status allows the program that flexibility. However, it goes against the grain of the university and will never happen. Notre Dame history was built by the rise of the little guy, not the big dumb guy who can only play football and little else. A professional football program might hurt recruiting for other Notre Dame programs.

Joining an existing conference would give the ND football program motivation for conference championships rather than the all-or-nothing approach towards the national championship. It would also help the Irish develop a regional base of potential athletes. The Big East is in fact a prime market because New England does not have a strong football powerhouse and should the Irish capitalize on cornering that market it could recruit very strongly in at least one sector of the nation. There is precidence for a program rising through the Big East; Miami and Boston College both joined the Big East in 1991 and left for the ACC a few years ago. Such a move by the Irish would come at financial sacrifice, but not from scheduling. Notre Dame already plays a couple Big East teams per year. The shift from playing Army, Navy, and Air Force to Big East programs can only help.

There is a strong sentimental for Notre Dame retaining independence for the sake of independence, but the fact that every other sport plays in the Big East conference obliterates that argument. The current arrangement allows Notre Dame football to retain the proceeds from its national television contract and bowl game appearances without sharing with a conference. This short term return can diminish over the long term, especially should the prime channels opt to forgo broadcasting the Notre Dame schedule nationally. The decline of bowl appearances demonstrates a pressing need to shift the program from its current status into a different direction.

Here's the last ten years of Notre Dame football:

Year	Record	Bowl Game	Bowl Result	AP Rank
1999	5-7	none	none	NR
2000	9-3	Fiesta	Lost to Oregon State	15
2001	5-6	none	none	NR
2002	10-3	Gator	Lost to NC State	17
2003	5-7	none	none	NR
2004	6-6	Insight	Lost to Oregon State	NR
2005	9-3	Fiesta	Lost to OSU	9
2006	10-3	Sugar	Lost to LSU	17
2007	3-9	none	none	NR
2008	7-6	Hawaii	Beat Hawaii	NR

Boston College, South Carolina, and Navy. I think three programs represent the three trajectories ND can go, from positive like BC, to flat as SC, or a negative direction to on par with Navy. The three nationally prominent teams over the past ten years are USC, Florida, and LSU. Notre Dame is very far from competing with these programs. Three comparable Big East programs are Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. Take a look at comparisons from the past ten years of Notre Dame verse these respective programs.

	Record	Bowl Games	Bowl Record	AP rankings	Championships
Notre Dame	69-53	6	1-5	4	0

peer group (average winning percentage 56.3%, Notre Dame winning percentage 56.6%):

	Record	Bowl Games	Bowl Record	AP rankings	Championships	Win %
Boston College	88-39	10	8-2	5	0	69.3%
South Carolina	61-59	5	3-2	2	0	50.8%
Navy	59-62	6	2-4	1	0	48.8%

Nationally competitive (average winning percentage 75.0%):

USC	99-28	8	6-2	7	2	78.0%
Florida	96-33	10	4-6	8	2	74.4%
LSU	93-35	9	7-2	7	1	72.7%

Big East (average winning percentage 59.7%):

Pitt	69-51	6	2-4	2	0	57.5%
West Virginia	81-42	8	5-3	5	0	65.9%
Cincinnati	69-55	7	3-4	2	0	55.6%

Looking at one year is never the best ability to draw out analysis. However, here are the current BCS rankings for these ten programs:

Notre Dame #58

Peer Group:
Boston College #34
South Carolina #37
Navy #56

Nationally competitive:
USC #18
Florida #2
LSU #12

Big East:
Cincinnati #8
Pitt #14
West Virginia #28

A football team from the Big East can end up ranked higher than the nationally competitive programs and even pull in a top bowl game. Notre Dame could use a platform for demonstrating its ability and a sense of rebuilding the program towards becoming nationally competitive. Instead the program appears on pace to continue to worsen. Losing to Navy two out of the last three times in light of (courtesy of Navy's press kit) "Navy last defeated a team ranked in the Top 10 on Nov. 17, 1984, when the Mids shocked No. 2 South Carolina, 38-21" highlights how far from a top ten program Notre Dame football remains.